Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
